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April 9, 2016
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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

This week has been in favour of the sellers with clients net-selling their silver positions whilst gold positions have remained neutral.
GoldMoney’s clients have continued to favour the Singapore vault along with more interest being shown toward the Hong Kong, Swiss, and Canadian vaults and less preference being shown toward the London vault…

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Market Report: Firm undertones

– .goldmoney.com

The dollar gold price rose this week from Monday’s low of $1215 to close last night (Thursday) at $1240, and silver rose from $14.90 to $15.20.
Silver’s performance compared with gold reflects lower than normal silver volatility, a trend that has featured from the start of this year, which can be discerned in the underperformance shown in the headline chart above…

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Natural gas stayed in range in side near term channel last week and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 2.496 is likely finished at 1.611 already. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.766 support holds. Current rally would gyrate towards 100% projection of 1.611 to 1.957 from 1.766 at 2.112 next.

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At this point, deeper fall is still mildly in favor in silver with focus on 14.61 support, 61.8% retracement of 13.62 to 16.17 at 14.59. Break would at least bring a test on 13.62 low, with mild prospect of breaking to a new low. Meanwhile, above 15.55 resistance will turn focus back to 16.17 instead…

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Volatility jumped with the VIX fear index urging to the highest level in 3 weeks. Risk assets got hammered. Wall Street retreated with DJIA and S&P 500 indices losing -0.98% and -1.2% respectively. Shares in Asia fell across the board in morning session today. In the commodity sector, crude oil pared gains made over the past two days…

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Interest rates and gold

– .goldmoney.com

It is commonly assumed that the gold price and interest rates move in opposite directions.
In other words, a tendency towards higher interest rates is accompanied by a lower gold price. Like all assumptions about prices, sometimes it is true and sometimes not.The market today is all about synthetic gold, gold which is referred to but rarely delivered…

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The consolidation from 1287 short term top is still in progress. Deeper pull back might seen but seen to to 38.2% retracement of 1045.4 to 1287.8 at 1195.2 or below. But after all, price actions from 1287.8 should be corrective in nature. And, we’d expect rise from 1045.4 to resume later.

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Crude oil breached 35.96 support last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. We maintain our expectation that strong resistance from 40.00/41.42 resistance zone (61.8% retracement of 50.92 to 26.05 at 41.42, 38.2% retracement of 62.58 to 26.05 at 40.00) should complete the rebound from 26…

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April 6, 2016
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Silver Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

The sharp fall from 16.17 suggests short term topping there and deeper fall could likely be seen in silver initially this week. The failure to take out 16.37 resistance raised some doubts on the larger bullish outlook. Also, Silver struggled to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Hence, break of 14.61 support, 61…

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The break of 1225.1 support affirmed our view of short term topping at 1287.8. Deeper pull back should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1045.4 to 1287.8 at 1195.2 or below. But after all, price actions from 1287.8 should be corrective in nature. And, we’d expect rise from 1045.4 to resume later.

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Crude oil’s decline last week is taken as as early sign that rebound from 26.05 is completed at 41.90. That’s in line with our expectation of strong resistance from 40.00/41.42 resistance zone (61.8% retracement of 50.92 to 26.05 at 41.42, 38.2% retracement of 62.58 to 26.05 at 40.00). Break of 35.96 will confirm this view and turn bias back to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 33…

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Risk Rally Dissipating…

– oilngold.com

Crude oil slides further in Asian session as the market loses hopes on better demand/supply balance. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil, now trading around 36.3, stays at the lowest level in mid-March. Price has retraced more than -10% of the gains made in the February rally. Similarly, Brent crude has also retreated from its recent rally…

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Commodities slumped as led by crude oil prices which plunged to lowest levels in a month on dented hopes of production freeze. The front-month WTI contract extended weakness to as low as 35.46 before settling at 35.7, down -2.96%. The Brent contract also declined -2.53%, following a -2.35% drop last Friday…

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April 2, 2016
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Rebutting Matt O'Brien's and the Washington Post's Misguided Attack on Gold + MORE

A tale of two currencies

– .goldmoney.com

There is a widespread and growing feeling that financial markets are slipping towards another crisis of some sort.
In this article I argue that we are in the eye of a financial storm, that it will blow again from the direction of the advanced economies, and that this time it will uproot the purchasing power of major currencies…

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This week, clients have been selling their gold positions and have been buying or exchanging into silver.
GoldMoney’s clients have continued to favour the Singapore and London vaults this week, with less favour being shown for the Swiss and Canada vaults.
Kelly-Ann Kearsey, Dealing Manager at GoldMoney said, this week saw a shortened trading week due to the Easter break and today marks the end of the first quarter…

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Fed chair Janet Yellen’s comments that cautious should be taken in consideration of further rate hike pressured US dollar and yields, but lifted equities. Crude oil prices managed to climb higher earlier in the day but then reversed as oil inventory showed another week of increase. The front-month WTI contract dropped -2…

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Gold and silver prices rose slightly over the course of this week, with the gold price up $15 to $1235, and silver up 20c to $15.38. London having been closed for Easter Monday, trading in the physical market was subdued. Futures’ volumes were normal, with the exception of a spike on Tuesday when Janet Yellen delivered a widely anticipated speech to the Economic Club of New York, outlining the Fed’s thinking about economic prospects…

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Rebutting Matt Obriens and the Washington Post’s Misguided Attack on Gold
It is our mission to rebut any mainstream article that spreads misinformation about gold and/or shows a gross misunderstanding of monetary history.  In Matt O’Brien’s “Wonkblog” in the Washington Post on February 23, 2016, titled “This might be Ted Cruz’s worst idea“, he does both…

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Investors are cautiously awaiting the US employment report. Risk appetite appeared softened with Wall Street and European shares ending the day lower. The VIX (fear index) increased for the first time in 5 days. US dollar continued to drop but it’s more due to month-end rebalancing activities. In the commodity sector, both benchmark crude oil contracts ended the day modestly higher…

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Market participants continued to digest Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in New York. US dollar weakened further modestly while equities climbed higher. Wall Street added +0.47% and +0.44% respectively. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has gained +0.39% in morning session, after dropping -1.3% a day ago due to the strength of Japanese yen…

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March 29, 2016
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Soft US Data Trimmed Hopes of Fed Rate Hike In June

Markets were quite on Monday as most of Europe was still on holiday. In the US, Wall Street climbed modestly higher, USD slipped while Treasury yields were lower. Fed funds rate hike expectations were weighed down by disappointing inflation and spending data. Ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Economics Club of New York today, the market has priced in only a small probability of rate hike in June…

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March 26, 2016
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Dealing Desk: Precious Metals Weighed Down on Fed Hawkish Statement + MORE

Attacks in Brussels affected financial market in Europe and the US, sending safe-haven assets including gold, US dollar and Japanese yen higher as risk appetite soured. The benchmark Comex gold contract added +0.35% and silver was up +0.23%. Crude oil prices, despite risk aversion and record high US inventory, extended strength

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In the run up to Easter, trading in markets generally has become both volatile and thin.
It is usual in these conditions for negative factors to recede from traders’ minds, and so we have seen continuing strength in equities, and a resurgence in confidence in the dollar after its recent weakness. Most vulnerable have been precious metals on the back of a stronger dollar, and also sterling, where the excuse for selling is opinion polls suggesting Brexit is more likely…

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Equities fell as US dollar continued to pare losses made after Fed announcement and as crude oil prices retreated on bigger-than-expected US inventory build. Wall Street slipped with DJIA and S&P 500 indices losing -0.45% and -0.64% respectively. Shares in Asia were under pressure on Thursday with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index declining -1…

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Or some reflections to read over the Easter holidays
With Japanese and Eurozone interest rates becoming increasingly negative, and the Fed backing off from at least some of the planned increases in the Fed funds rate this year, economists are reassessing the interest rate outlook.
Economists lack consensus, with some expecting yet more easing, based on the apparent collapse in cross-border trade last year…

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This week, clients have preferred purchasing silver to gold and have been seen exchanging their gold for silver.
Many clients were seen seen buying precious metals on Tuesday and Wednesday after taking advantage of the price drop.
GoldMoney’s clients have favoured the Singapore and London vaults this week, with less favour being shown for the Swiss and Hong Kong vaults…

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March 22, 2016
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Crude Oil Extends Rally Above US$40/bbl + MORE

Market sentiment remains firm ahead of European opens. In the commodity sector, both crude oil benchmarks continue to trade above US$40/bbl on a report suggesting decline in Cushing stockpile last week. Genscaps estimated that Cushing crude stockpile fell -0.57 mmb to 69.05mmb in the week ended March 18…

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Risky assets retreated last Friday on profit-taking, paring the gains made during the week after dovish Fed comments. Following a rate hike in January, the Fed might only increase its policy rate one more time throughout this year, as the latest dot plot suggested. This came in markedly lower than previous expectations of four rate hikes in 2016…

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The reserve currency curse

– .goldmoney.com

The reserve currency curse
Introduction
Is reserve currency status a blessing or a curse? The answer might seem obvious, as reserve currencies have been shown to confer lower borrowing costs on their issuers. But what of the borrower who, enticed by low interest rates, borrows more than they can pay back? Naturally the result will be a default…

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Silver’s breach of 15.99 resistance argue that rise from 13.62 bottom is resuming. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week for 16.37 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 100% projection of 13.62 to 15.99 from 14.61 at 16.98 first. Nonetheless, break of 15…

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Renminbi slipped in Asia Monday, after PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned of the elevated corporate debt to GDP ratio in China. Echoing Premier Li Keqiang’s comment on March 16 that high corporate debt ratio “is not new in China” and the government would seek to ease the situation. Asian equities, however, remained firm…

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At this point, we’re still favoring the case that gold has completed an impulsive wave at 1287.8 and pull back is due. Break of 1225.1 support will confirm short term topping and bring pull back to 55days EMA (now at 1173.9) and below. Nonetheless, sustained break of 1287.8 top will dampen our view and extend the rise of 1045…

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March 18, 2016
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Risky Assets Rally as Fed Scaled Back Rake Hike Forecasts + MORE

The ECB and John Law

– .goldmoney.com

Last week, the ECB extended its monetary madness, pushing deposit rates further into negative figures.
It is extending quantitative easing from sovereign debt into non-financial investment grade bonds, while increasing the pace of acquisition to €80bn per month. The ECB also promised to pay the banks to take credit from it in “targeted longer-term refinancing operations”…

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Crude oil prices retreated on profit-taking, following rally over the past few weeks. News that Iran would not join output freeze had weighed on prices. The front-month WTI contract fell -3.43% while the Brent contract was down -2.13%. Commodity currencies also fell accordingly. For instance, Aussie dropped -1…

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Market Report: FOMC backs off

– .goldmoney.com

Precious metal prices eased ahead of this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting, which ended on Wednesday.
Gold had drifted $30 lower before recovering it all in a matter of minutes on Wednesday afternoon EST, after the rate decision was announced. The FOMC decided not to raise rates, despite a pick-up in core inflation and employment figures, indicating the FOMC’s targets had been satisfied…

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Oil prices dropped for a second consecutive day, driven by lack of confidence over output control, mixed US data and caution ahead of FOMC meeting. Losses were, however, limited as US inventory increased less than expected. The front-month WIT crude contract initially fell to 35.96, the lowest level in almost 2 weeks, before settling at 36…

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This week, clients have been buying larger volumes of all precious metals, possibly speculating ahead of the FOMC meeting on Thursday and taking advantage of the lower prices seen through the week. Silver has been the favourite metal of the week, receiving the highest proportion of buy orders.
GoldMoney’s clients have continued to favour the Singapore and Canadian vaults this week, with less favour being shown for the London and Swiss vaults…

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Risk appetite stays strong as the market digest the more dovish than expected FOMC statement. US dollar got hammered with the DXY index plunging to the lowest level since October. Equities rallied with Wall Street’s DJIA and S&P 500 indices gaining +0.9% and +0.66% respectively. Note that the latter has erased its losses made in 2016…

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Risky assets jumped across the board after FOMC’s dovish statement. In the commodity sector, energy prices rose across the board with the front-month WTI crude contract gaining +5.83% and the Brent contract up +4.1%. Gold jumped to a 3-day high of 1263.8, up US$30 from prior day’s close, as the Fed scaled back its rate hike outlook and USD slumped…

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March 15, 2016
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Silver Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

Shares in Asia strengthened on Monday, extending last Friday’s gains as investors have turned more positive over ECB’s aggressive stimulus measures. This has overshadowed the disappointing macroeconomic data in China. At the time of writing, Japanese Nikkei 225 index is up +1.77% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added +1…

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Silver failed to take out 15.99 resistance so far and the consolidation pattern from there might extend. In case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 13.62 to 15.99 at 14.52 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 15.99 will resume the medium term rise from 13…

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Crude oil’s rally continued last week but starts to lose momentum as seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further rise would be in favor as long as 36.12 support holds. But strong resistance could be seen at 38.2% retracement of 62.58 to 26.05 at 40.00 to limit upside. Below 36.12 will indicate short term topping and bring pull back first…

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Inflection Points

– .goldmoney.com

Inflection Points

Introduction
Gold prices are up between 13% and 23% year-to-date in the major currencies. However, this upward trend started long before the recent price rally. In fact, in a majority of currencies, gold has been in a sustainable upward trend since 2014. On average, these upward trends tend to last 4…

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Energy prices extended recent rally amidst hopes of better demand/supply balance ahead as well as US dollar’s weakness across the board. However, we doubt if the strength is sustainable as execution of the OPEC-Russia output freeze plan remains challenging. The market turned more optimistic over the oil market outlook US fuel demand rose while crude inventory increased less than expected…

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Gold edged higher last week but failed felt some selling pressure ahead of 1300 handle. Bearish divergence conditions are seen in 4 hours and daily MACD. Current rise might be the fifth wave in a five wave sequence and hence, upside potential should be limited. Break of 1225.1 would confirm short term topping and bring pull back, targeting 55 days EMA (now at 1157…

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March 11, 2016
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Crude Prices Rebound Again as Fuel Stockpile Dropped; RBNZ Cut Rates; Focus on ECB + MORE

Commodity prices retreated on profit-taking. Market sentiment was also damped by IMF’s warning of increasing risk on global growth derailment. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil fell for the first time in 3 days by -3.69% while the Brent contract recorded the first drop (down -2.91%) after gaining over the past 6 days (up +15…

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Crude oil prices resumed recent rebound, leading energy shares and equity indices higher. The front-month WTI crude contract rose to a 3-month high of 38.51 before settling at 38.29, up +4.9%. The Brent contract initially soared to as high as 41.18 before ending the day at 41.07, up +3.58%. RBOB gasoline jumped almost +6% as DOE/EIA reported another week of decline in stockpile…

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Financial markets steadied on Friday following a rollercoaster ride upon ECB’s policy decisions. Risk appetite was lifted shortly after ECB announced a series of broader-than-expected stimulus measures to boost the economy and inflation. The euro slumped against US dollar while stocks in Europe and Wall Street rallied…

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This week, clients have been selling larger values of all precious metals, possibly speculating ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday and taking advantage of the higher prices seen through the week.
Conversely, we have seen a lot of buying by clients taking advantage of the price dips seen over the week…

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Gold is the only sound money

– .goldmoney.com

This article notes that the technical situation for the gold price has sharply improved, to the evident surprise of many mainstream analysts. It discusses possible reasons behind the turnaround, and implications for the future.
The technical situation is shown in the chart below.

A “golden cross”, with the 55 day moving average crossing above the 200 day moving average with both of them on a rising trend, and the share price above both these moving averages, has now occurred…

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Commodities rallied, on hopes that additional Chinese easing measures would raise demand. Energy prices jumped as US oil rig counts fell to the lowest level since December 2009 and Russia indicated that a meeting between OPEC and some non-OPEC producers would be held later this months. the front-month WTI crude contract soared to as high as 38…

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Market Report: Gold breaks out

– .goldmoney.com

Despite a sharp run-up over the last two months, gold’s consolidation of previous strength has been a three-week sideways affair.
Gold’s price started the week at $1260 and as of this morning (Friday 0800 London time) was $1271, after trading as high as $1282 overnight. Silver moved from $15.58 to $15…

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March 7, 2016
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Market Report: Up, up and away! + MORE

Natural gas’s decline continued last week and the break of 1.684 low indicates down trend resumption. Nonetheless, as bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hours MACD. Also, it’s close to 1.618% projection of 2.495 to 2.044 from 2.315 at 1.585, as well as lower channel line, we’d expect some consolidations first…

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Shares in Asia traded mixed on Monday. Although US nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside, China’s revision of economic growth target might have disappointed some investors. At the time of writing this article, China’s CSI 300 index is up +0.36% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has reversed earlier gains and is down -0…

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Vancouver, BC, Canada – March 7, 2016 – Miranda Gold Corp. (‘Miranda’) (TSX-V: MAD) and Gold Torrent, Inc., (‘Gold Torrent’) (OTC-QB:GTOR) announce an updated mineral resource for Willow Creek, Alaska. The Willow Creek Project is located approximately 121 km north of Anchorage, Alaska, in the Willow Creek mining district…

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Silver’s pull back could have completed at 14.61 already. Focus is back on 15.99 resistance this week. Break there will resumption the medium term rise from 13.62 and target 16.37 resistance. In case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 13.62 to 15.99 at 14.52 to contain downside and bring rebound…

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Gold’s rally resumed last week by taking out 1263.9 resistance. Further rise expected this week towards 61.8% projection of 1045.4 to 1263.9 from 1225.1 at 1360.1. In any case, break of 1225.1 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat…

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Gold has had a good week, breaking out from a consolidation pattern, and heading into new high ground for this year.
Silver, which has been left behind, appears to be merely pulled along in gold’s wake. As of early this morning UK time, the gold price is at $1,261, up 19% on the year, while silver is a little better this morning relative to its recent underperformance at $15…

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Crude oil’s rally from 26.05 continued last week and the break of 34.82 resistance completed a double bottom reversal pattern. Stronger rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 62.58 to 26.05 at 40.00 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 48.63. On the downside, sustained trading below 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 33…

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March 4, 2016
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Brexit and a Hanseatic League + MORE

Financial markets consolidated ahead of US nonfarm payrolls report. Equities firmed with modest gains in Asia today, carrying forward the sentiment in European and US sessions. Wall Street retreated initially on mixed economic data but then reversed losses and ended the day higher. The DJIA and S&P 500 indices gained +0…

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Crude oil prices remained firm as driven by strong risk appetite. Traders shrugged off a huge increase in US crude inventory, and focused on the decline in gasoline stockpile. The front-month WTI contract rose for a third consecutive day, to 35.17, the highest level since January 6, before settling at 34…

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Brexit and a Hanseatic League

– .goldmoney.com

David Cameron, Britain’s Prime Minister, has negotiated terms with the other EU member states, which he feels justified to put to voters in an in/out referendum called for 23 June.
At this early stage in the campaign, the terms are not sufficient to give a clear lead in favour a vote to stay, contributing to a slide in sterling on the foreign exchanges…

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This week, clients have been net buying all precious metals with some clients taking advantage of the higher pricing to sell their metal.
Overall, clients showed a preference for gold and silver this week. It appears that many clients are supporting the precious metals in times of economic turmoil.
GoldMoney’s clients have preferred the Singapore vaults, with less favour being seen this week for the London and Swiss vaults…

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Market sentiment improved across the board. Wall Street rallied with DJIA and S&P 500 indices gaining +2.11% and +2.39% respectively. Nasdaq jumped +3.15%. The VIX index, the fear gauge of the market, fell to 17.7 at close, the lowest level since December 2015. US dollar rose only against Japanese yen and euro…

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Crude oil prices strengthened on further easing from China and Saudi Arabia’s pledge to freeze production. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezeula and Qatar are working on a plan to freeze oil output at January. In its latest statement, Saudi affirmed that it “will always remain in contact with all main producers in an attempt to limit volatility and it welcomes any cooperative action”…

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February 29, 2016
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Mainland Equities Slump as G-20 Meeting Ended + MORE

Natural gas dipped further to as low as 1.682 last week and breached 1.684 support before recovering mildly. At this point, we’re still expecting strong support around 1.684 medium term bottom to bring rebound. Considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.832 minor resistance will indicate near term reversal turn outlook bullish…

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It may be too early to say the correction in precious metal prices, which followed an impressive run-up that ended on 11th February, is over, but gold’s performance this week has been bullish.
On two occasions at least, attempts by market-makers to shake speculators out of long positions failed, only generating more buying on the dip…

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Gold stayed in sideway consolidation from 1263.9 short term top last week and outlook is unchanged. As long as 118.04/16 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 1045.4 to 1263.9 at 1180.4), further rally is still expected. Break of 1263.9 will target 1307.8 resistance next. However, break of 1181…

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Crude oil’s rebound from 26.05 extended higher last week but take out 34.82 resistance so far. Also, it’s limited well below 38.39 resistance and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 26.19 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. In case of another rise, strong resistance is expected at 38.9 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually…

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Mainland Chinese equities slumped on Monday, as investors were disappointed by the lack of new easing measures announced after the G-20 meeting in Shanghai. The CSI 300 index fell to a 15-month low of 2832 earlier in the day and is down more than -3% at the time of writing this article.

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Silver’s pull back from 15.99 extended lower last week. Further fall could be seen but still, we’re expecting strong support from 61.8% retracement of 13.62 to 15.99 at 14.52 to contain downside and bring rebound. And a break of 15.99 is in favor to extend recent rebound from 13.62 to 16.37 resistance…

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February 25, 2016
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Crude Retreated after Rallying on Short Squeeze + MORE

This week has seen a continued high in activity with clients net buying all precious metals.
Clients have favoured gold and silver this week; along with with the occasional price dip seen through the week, many clients have been supporting the metals as a safe haven asset against the volatility of the global economy…

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Weak risk appetite in Europe and the US is carried forward to Asia Wednesday with equities falling across the region. The sentiment is also dampened by PBOC which cut its renminbi fixing rate by the most in 6 weeks. The decline in European shares was driven by energy and material sectors as Brent crude pared most of the gains made in the prior day…

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It has become clear to everyone in the financial world that the monetary policies pursued by central banks have completely failed in their objectives.
Central bankers carry on regardless, continuing to ride the speeding money-train to the end of the line, a train from which jumping risks serious injury…

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Decline in gasoline and distillate inventories lifted energy prices. Both crude oil benchmarks rose with the WTI contract extending gains for a third consecutive day and ending the day +0.88% higher. The Brent contract added +3.43%,reverting the -4% loss in the prior day. Price has continued hovering around the recent trading range below 36…

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Eliminating cash will also eliminate the checks and balances on banking policy and practice
The rhetoric against cash (bank notes and coins) has intensified over the past months. Academics and central bankers are advocating the elimination of large denominations of currency notes; some suggest to eliminate cash altogether…

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Crude oil retreated after yesterday’s rally which was in line with the strength in the equity markets. While last week’s output freeze deal might have helped the jump a bit, the key is probably short squeeze. The front-month WTI contract initially rose to 32.05, a level not seen in more than 2 weeks, before ending the day at 31…

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Stagflation is, always and everywhere, a Keynesian phenomenon
Although it might seem odd for a school of economics to largely ignore the role of money in the economy, this is indeed the case with traditional Keynesian economics. Declaring in 1963 that, “Inflation is, always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon,” Milton Friedman sought to place money at the centre of economics where he and his fellow Monetarists believed it belonged…

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February 22, 2016
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Silver Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

Shares in Asia climbed higher as investors await the G-20 meeting later in the week. While not expected to reach any agreement on stimulating global growth, the meeting should offer some relief as different countries show unity and agree to coordinate. Crude oil price strengthened a tad, with both benchmark contracts gaining more than +1% at the time of writing…

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Silver struggled to sustain above 55 weeks EMA and retreated mildly last week. Initial bias is neutral this week for more consolidations. In case of deeper pull back, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 13.62 to 15.99 at 14.52 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 15…

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After a very sharp run-up in prices last week, gold and silver consolidated these gains, drifting slightly lower over the week.
Gold was almost unchanged from last Friday’s close at $1236 last night (Thursday) but silver was down 35 cents at $15.40. This morning in early European trade gold was marked down, presumably on the basis there might be some bullish speculators looking to reduce their positions ahead of the weekend…

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Crude oil stayed in the consolidation pattern from 16.15 last week and outlook is unchanged. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But at this point, we’d still expect strong resistance from 38.9 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually. Break of 26.054 well confirm this bearish case and target 21…

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Natural gas dropped further last week and showed downside acceleration. Deeper fall could still be seen but at this point, we’d still expect strong support above 1.684 medium term bottom to bring rebound. Above 1.96 will turn bias back to the upside for 2.495 resistance. However, firm break of 1.684 will invalidate our view and carry larger bearish implications…

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As long as 1181.6 minor support holds, near term outlook in gold stays bullish and further rally is expected to 1307.8 resistance next. Nonetheless, break of 1181.6 will confirm short term topping and bring lengthier consolidations and possibly deeper pull back.

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February 18, 2016
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Sentiment Firms on Central Banks' Easing Bias + MORE

Financial markets calm on Monday, following a volatile week. Chinese market reopens after a long holiday with the CSI 300 index slipping -1.42% at the time of writing this report. Its movement helps determine the direction for the week ahead. Last Friday, European and US shares rebounded as led by energy and financial shares…

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The true role of gold

– .goldmoney.com

At a time of growing concern about the global financial system, it is time to remind ourselves why physical gold is so important for the benefit of the nearly three quarters of a million BitGold and GoldMoney customers, as well as those who might be considering what the benefits are of opening a gold deposit account…

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Iran showed supports on the deal between Russia and some OPEC members to freeze oil output. Yet, it refrained from joining the freeze. As Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh noted the deal is “the first step” to stabilize oil prices. He added that “this cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC members to stabilize the market is good news”…

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Instead of agreeing to cut production, Russia, Saudi Arabia, together with Qatar and Venezuela agreed to freeze of oil output at January’s levels. This deal is, however, conditional to other producers joining in. The market was not thrilled by the deal with both benchmark contracts retreating from gains made previously…

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Market sentiment remained strong, carrying forward last Friday’s rally in US market and oil prices. Japanese equities jumped, gaining more than +1% in Asian session, following a +7.16% rally in the prior day. The strength, in spite of bigger than expected GDP contraction in 4Q15, was driven by Japanese yen’s weakness and hopes of further BOJ easing in March…

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February 15, 2016
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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

Natural gas’ choppy decline from 2.495 continued last week but outlook is unchanged. Such decline is viewed as a correction. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect downside to be contained well above 1.684 medium term bottom. Another rally is expected and above 2.172 minor resistance will target 61…

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Silver’s rally continued last week further rise should be seen to 16.37 resistance next. As noted before, recent development indicates near term trend reversal and break of 16.37 should confirm this case and target 17.775 next. On the downside, 14.58 is now seen as a key near term support and outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as it holds…

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Gold jumped sharply higher last week and took out 1191.7 resistance firmly. The development confirmed medium term bottoming at 1045.4. Further rise should be seen to 1307.8 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1181.6 is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat…

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Market Report: Lift-off!

– .goldmoney.com

Gold and silver rallied strongly this week, particularly yesterday (Thursday), following a strong showing in Asian trading.
Gold had put on $20 in the Asian session, before putting on another $30 during American hours, closing a little below the best. Silver also rallied, but this is not where the action was…

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This week has seen several clients selling gold and silver to take advantage of the extraordinary price gains on both metals. However, as the price increases have continued, we have seen a high interest from clients to purchase the yellow metal.
GoldMoney’s clients have preferred the Singapore vaults this week, with the London and Switzerland vaults less popular…

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Crude oil dipped to 26.05 last week but recovered quickly since then. The development suggests that consolidation pattern from 26.19 is still in progress and another rise would be seen. But still, strong resistance should be seen from 38.9 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 26…

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February 11, 2016
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The Iron Law of Money + MORE

Gold outlook improves

– .goldmoney.com

There is a conflation of three related events that materially alter the prospects in favour of a higher gold price.
The change in the outlook for US interest rates has probably put an end to the dollar’s four-year bull run, it is clear that there is a growing likelihood of negative interest rates in the future, and the global banking system is no fit state to manage the potential challenges of 2016…

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The Iron Law of Money

– .goldmoney.com

The Iron Law of Money
The spread of negative interest rate policies around the world, heralded by economic officials as the answer to the disappointing results of zero-rate policies and quantitative easing, is in fact nothing of the sort. By degrading the nature of money, negative interest rates will have commensurately negative consequences…

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February 7, 2016
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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

With 29.25 minor support intact, the rebound from 26.19 short term bottom could still extend higher. But such rebound is still viewed as a corrective pattern. Thus, strong resistance could be seen from 38.9 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 29.25 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 26…

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It was a better week for precious metals, with gold and silver hitting new highs for 2016.
Last night gold closed at $1155.5 and silver at $14.91, and in early London trade this morning prices opened at these closing levels. The performance for 2016 so far represents a rise of 9% for gold, and 7.75% for silver…

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This week has seen clients selling gold and silver, taking advantage of the impressive gains on both metals.
However, many clients have also been purchasing precious metals in order to take advantage of the cheaper rates seen earlier this week. Overall, the week has been in favour of buyers.
The Singapore, Canadian, and London vaults have proven the most popular with GoldMoney’s clients, with the Swiss and Hong Kong vaults the lesser preferred…

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The corrective pull back from 2.495 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect downside to be contained well above 1.684 medium term bottom. Another rally is expected and above 2.315 minor resistance will target 61.8% retracement of 3.105 to 1.684 at 2…

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Gold strengthened for a third consecutive week, extending the gains by +3.71% on US dollar’s weakness. Indeed, other precious metals also got supported with silver adding +3.76%, the largest weekly increase since September 2015. For PGMs, platinum and palladium prices rose +3.41% and +0.32% respectively…

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Silver’s strong break of 14.64 resistance suggests that the near term trend is reversal. That is, fall from 18.505 could be completed as a terminal triangle. Further rise is now expected to be seen back to test 16.37 resistance first. On the downside, 14.27 is now seen as a key near term support and outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as it holds…

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Gold’s strong rally and the break of medium term fall channel indicates bottoming. Further rise should now be seen 1191.7 resistance first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and would target 1307.8 resistance next. On the downside, 1113.1 support is now seen as a key near term support level and outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as it holds…

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Shorting the yuan is dangerous

– .goldmoney.com

Last Sunday (31 January) Zero Hedge ran an article drawing attention to the big names in the hedge fund community who are betting heavily that the yuan will suffer a major devaluation any time between the next few months and perhaps the next three years.
The impression given is that this view is universal, almost to the exclusion of any other…

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February 4, 2016
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US Manufacturing Sector in Worst Contraction since mid-2009 + MORE

Although risk appetite was lifted by BOJ’s negative rate decision late last week, the boost appears short-lived as market optimism has been dampened by disappointing China data. The official manufacturing PMI dropped -0.2 point to 49.4 in January. This came in worse than expectations of 49.6. The non-manufacturing index added +0…

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Sentiment soured a bit on soft manufacturing data in China and then in the US. WTI crude oil resumed selloff as investors took profit from last week’s rebound which was mainly on hopes of coordinated production cut between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The front-month WTI contract plunged -5.95% at close…

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The correlation between energy prices and stock markets remains high. With an oil inventory report triggering further selloff in oil prices, equities fell as energy shares got hammered. Wall Street dropped with DJIA and S&P losing -1.8% and -1.87% respectively. Nasdaq plunged -2.18% at close. Stock markets were weighed down by the energy companies as their latest earnings results were disappointing…

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January 31, 2016
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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

This week has seen selling across all metals with the exception of platinum.
We have seen more buy orders into the Singapore, Canadian, and Swiss vaults this week. We have seen less of a preference for the UK, Swiss, and Hong Kong vaults this week.
Kelly-Ann Kearsey, Dealing Manager at GoldMoney, says clients have continued to steadily buy this week, with some higher volume selling…

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No change in Natural gas’ outlook. Price actions from 2.495 are viewed as consolidation pattern only and downside should be contained well above 1.684 medium term bottom. Another rally is expected and above 2.495 will target 61.8% retracement of 3.105 to 1.684 at 2.562 next. Break will bring a test on 3…

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Surprises in store….

– .goldmoney.com

The month of January has been a wake-up call for complacent equity investors.
From the peaks of last year stock indices in the major markets have fallen 10-20%, give or take. On their own, these falls could be read as healthy corrections in an ongoing bull market, and doubtless there are investors hanging on to their investments in the hope that this is true…

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Vancouver, BC, Canada — JANUARY 28, 2016 – Miranda Gold Corp. (‘Miranda’) (TSX-V: MAD) reports is pleased to announce that its shareholders voted in favour of all resolutions brought before them at the Company’s annual general meeting of shareholders held Thursday, January 28, 2016, in Vancouver…

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Market report: Silver fixed

– .goldmoney.com

Gold and silver continued their rise, feeding on the problems facing equities as they try to adjust to the downgrading of the US’s growth prospects.
There was an attempt yesterday to mark the gold price down from Wednesday’s rise, which persisted into this morning’s early trading.
Silver remains a narrow market, which was dramatically proven at the midday fix yesterday (Thursday)…

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Silver continued to stay in sideway trading last week. With 14.64 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish. Current decline from 16.37 is still expected to continue to 100% projection of 17.775 to 13.91 from 16.37 at 12.51 next. On the upside, break of 14.64 is needed to indicate near term reversal…

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Energy prices recovered across the board last week, mainly driven by hopes of production cut. A surprising rate cut by BOJ also boosted sentiment as more easing measures might stimulus economic growth and oil demand. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil added +4.44% last week. In January, the WTI contract has dropped -9…

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Gold’s choppy rebound from 1045.4 extended last week but outlook is unchanged. Firstly such rebound is having a corrective look. Secondly, gold is staying well inside a medium term falling channel. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from upper channel line (now at 1143) to limit upside and bring near term reversal…

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The rebound from 26.19 short term bottom extended higher last week and further rise could be seen. But at this point, such rebound is still viewed as a corrective pattern. Thus, strong resistance could be seen from 38.9 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 29.25 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 26…

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January 27, 2016
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This is not 2008 – at least not for gold + MORE

Risky assets continue to shine in ahead of European opening. Last week’s ECB dovish tone certainly helps boost sentiment. Energy prices remain firm as extreme weather in the East Coast might raise fuel consumption. Despite temporary rebound, the outlook for energy prices is bearish. Oversupply concerns linger…

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Crude oil prices resumed selloff as official data suggested China’s fuel demand shrank last year. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia pledged to maintain energy investment and called for non-OPEC countries to reduce output. The front-month WTI contract plunged -5.75% while the Brent contract was down -5.22%. Both contracts have declined around -18% since the beginning of the year…

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Head of GoldMoney Wealth Services, John Butler, sat down with Real Vision TV to discuss blockchain, gold and new thinking on financial and monetary matters.  Click the image below to watch the interview on RVTV.  If you don’t have a subscription there is a free trial available. 

Real Vision is the video-on-demand platform for finance, where the world’s best investors share their ideas; in essence, they are the Netflix of Finance…

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This is not 2008 – at least not for gold
What a difference a month makes. As the market reassess growth and asset prices under renewed volatility – and with a more passive response from Central Banks thus far – the USD-gold price has remained remarkably stable and range-bound for over 10 weeks…

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Commodities reversed losses late last week amidst hopes of further stimulus from ECB. Energy prices were in addition lifted by unexpected snowstorm in the US. Nymex heating oil futures jumped over +10%, the biggest daily increase in a decade, last Friday on expectations of much strong demand for heating fuels…

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Market sentiment improved modestly amidst solid US macroeconomic data ahead of the FOMC meeting. Crude oil prices rebounded on signs of cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia on production cut. Gains were, however, limited by another week of increase in oil inventory. The front-month WTI contract initially rose to 32…

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January 24, 2016
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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook + MORE

Silver continued to stay in sideway trading last week. With 14.64 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish. Current decline from 16.37 is still expected to continue to 100% projection of 17.775 to 13.91 from 16.37 at 12.51 next. On the upside, break of 14.64 is needed to indicate near term reversal…

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Gold and silver had a better week, before yesterday afternoon (Thursday), when gold steadied and silver slid 20 cents back below the $14 mark.
However, in early European trade this morning gold was level at $1097 and silver slightly better at $14.07. This was relatively subdued, given that US crude oil dropped to under $28 at one point this week, but recovered to $30…

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Out of the mouths of babes….

– .goldmoney.com

Parents will tell you the most difficult questions to answer sometimes come from their children.
Here are some apparently innocent questions to ask of economists, journalists, financial commentators and central bankers, which are designed to expose the contradictions in their economic beliefs. They are at their most effective using a combination of empirical evidence and simple, unarguable logic…

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This week has seen clients supporting gold and platinum whilst selling silver and palladium.
GoldMoney’s clients have been buying into the Singapore and Canadian vaults again. There has also been more buy orders into the Swiss vault this week.
Kelly-Ann Kearsey, Dealing Manager at GoldMoney, says that gold has climbed to a two-month high earlier in the week along with silver which resumed its position above USD14…

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Crude oil dipped further to 26.19 last week but rebounded strongly since then. A short term bottom should be formed just ahead of 100% projection of 62.58 to 37.75 from 50.92 at 26.09. Some consolidations should be seen in near term. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.9 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption…

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The consolidation from 2.495 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. 1.684 is seen as a medium term bottom, we’d expect retreat to be contained above there and bring another rally. Above 2.495 will target 61.8% retracement of 3.105 to 1.684 at 2.562 next. Break will bring a test on 3.105 resistance…

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Gold’s consolidation from 1045.4 is still in progress and outlook is unchanged. After all, gold is staying well inside a medium term falling channel. Such rebound is viewed as a correction and could be limited by the channel resistance (now at 1143). The downside is still expected to extend lower through 1045…

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Market sentiment rebounded after ECB signaled to add more easing measures in March. European equities soared with the Stoxx 600 index gaining +1.93% at close. Wall Street climbed higher with DJIA and S&P 500 indices adding 0.74% and +0.52$ respectively. Crude oil prices also rebounded strongly. The front-month WTI contract jumped to as high as 30…

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January 20, 2016
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Brent Drifted Lower as Iran about to Raise Exports + MORE

Sentiment continued to be driven by crude oil prices which continued hovering below 30. With US market closed, the focus is on the Brent contract which slipped further to 27.67 at one point, before recovering to 28.55, down -1.35%. Concerns about oversupply remained pronounced and were exacerbated by Saturday’s news that key international sanctions over Iran were lifted…

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With 14.64 resistance intact, near term outlook in silver remains bearish. Current decline from 16.37 is still expected to continue to 100% projection of 17.775 to 13.91 from 16.37 at 12.51 next. On the upside, break of 14.64 is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery…

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Positive sentiment after the not-as-bad-as-feared Chinese GDP growth proved shorted-lived. Shares in Asia slumped as IMF warned the severe slowdown in Chinese economy would derail the world growth outlook. The world lender also cut its global economic growth forecasts for a third time in less than year…

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Gold’s consolidation from 1045.4 is still in progress and outlook is unchanged. After all, gold is staying well inside a medium term falling channel. Such rebound is viewed as a correction and could be limited by the channel resistance (now at 1143). The downside is still expected to extend lower through 1045…

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While the US market is closed on Martin Luther King day, the focus is on Asian and European markets. Equities in Asia weaken, catalyzed by the selloff of crude oil with both WTI and Brent contracts breaching US$30/bbl. Commodity currencies extend weakness with AUD, NZD and CAD losing as much as 5% against USD since the beginning of the year…

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January 16, 2016
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Rebound in Crude Oil Prices Sent Equities Higher + MORE

Wall Street and crude oil prices both rebounded. We view the recovery in the latter had helped lift the former. Concerns over capital outflow in China eased a tad with PBOC fixing the USDCNY rate at around 6.56 for the 6th consecutive day, whilst comments from St Louis Fed President James Bullard should have helped risk sentiment…

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GoldMoney® Founder James Turk, GoldMoney® Research Head Alasdair Macleod, and GoldMoney® Wealth Services President John Butler sat down for a round-table discussion to review 2015 and their 2016 outlook. 
Watch as they discuss the 2015 growth of a global recession, interest rates and the prospect of negative interest rates in 2016, credit crisis and debt in an over-leveraged system, collateral transformation, backwardation and commodities markets, debased currencies, collapse in industrial production, and so much more…

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This week has seen net buying in both gold and silver, with platinum and palladium experiencing some selling.
GoldMoney’s Singapore vaults have continued to be the most popular this week alongside our Canadian vault, which has received renewed interest from clients. Sell orders have been seen mostly in the Swiss vault this week…

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Risk sentiment failed to pick up as US oil inventory report reminds the market of supply glut in the energy markets. Although crude inventory registered less increase than expected, both gasoline and distillate stockpiles soared sharply. Crude oil benchmarks remained weak. Although the WTI contract managed to recovered after 7 consecutive days of decline…

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Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain’s Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking…

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Our headline chart says it all.
The first two weeks of 2016 have been volatile for precious metals, with gold ending up 2.3% and silver exactly unchanged by this morning (Friday) European time. All markets have been volatile this week, with energy particularly so. West Texas Intermediate hit a low of just under $30, down 21% since January 1st…

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January 13, 2016
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Weekly Fundamentals – Recording Double-Digit Losses, Crude OIl Begins 2016 with a Weak Note + MORE

Further selloff in commodity prices damped sentiment and weighed on stock markets. Crude oil prices extended weakness, slumping to the lowest levels in 12 years on oversupply concerns. The front-month WTI contract initial dived to 30.88 before ending the day at 31.41, down -5.28%, while the Brent contract tumbled to 31…

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Following gains in European and US session, equities continue to climb higher in Asia Wednesday as renminbi rebounded with PBOC’s defense. China set the CNY fixing at 6.5628, broadly unchanged for the 3rd day. Offshore renminbi (CNH) rebounded sharply, even briefly surpassing the onshore rate (CNY).

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Risk Appetite Begins the week with a weak note, as concerns over moderation in Chinese economic growth heighten. Despite the -10% selloff last week, crude oil price movement has shown no sign no stabilization. In Asian Monday, the front-month WTI contract has slipped another -1.8% whilst the Brent contract down -2…

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Following gains in European and US session, equities continue to climb higher in Asia Wednesday as renminbi rebounded with PBOC’s defense. China set the CNY fixing at 6.5628, broadly unchanged for the 3rd day. Offshore renminbi (CNH) rebounded sharply, even briefly surpassing the onshore rate (CNY).

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Crude oil prices ended the first week of 2016 in red, with both benchmarks registering losses in every trading day. Oversupply concerns were exacerbated by the roiling Chinese financial markets, as investors expressed their heightened worries over Chinese slowdown through dumping Chinese shares and renminbi…

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